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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.