Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the near four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer produced no concrete results.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Connor Baker
Connor Baker

Elara is a seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in online gaming and sports wagering.